February

If the dollar goes up, the Government is concerned. If low the dollar, also. Then what you want to the Government, a dollar high or low? No doubt, as I said in a recent article, the Government wants a dollar to $4 by the end of the year. With that level you can keep the real end of 2008 exchange rate. The competitive improvement exist, will be minimal. The Government of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who is in full campaign seeking the popular vote which ratifies the power the next June 28, has to listen to the popular vote of the Argentine ahorrista that is making his discomfort with the current economic situation and economic policy is carried out. Argentine ahorrista expressed his fear about the situation of the Argentine economy by modifying the composition of your investment portfolio, fleeing towards the dollar.

Product largely of this behavior of the small ahorrista, is that the Argentina’s financial system, slowly, but surely, it is dolarizando. Fixed in dollar terms grew by 30% in the last twelve months (and 15.9% in the first three months of the year only). Fixed term deposits are currently located on US $5,500 million and 86% of them are deposits (of less than US $1 million) retail. The dollarization of deposits of the private sector is evident. To February 3, deposits private in pesos of the banking sector accumulated a rise in the year of 0.4% versus 15.9% of deposits in dollars already commented increase (increase amounting to 22.3 per cent when it valued in local currency). Earlier this year, the dollar deposits accounted for 16.6% of total private deposits. They currently represent 19.5%. This increase of deposits in dollars while increasing the currency mismatch in the system, it is low in percentage terms (total deposits in dollars from the private sector amounted to US $9.141 billion, while the private dollar loans amount to $5.997 billion).

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